Water levels - what does 2023 have in store?

In 2017 & 2019 we experienced some dramatic high water levels which lead to our adjustable dock project. At least 2022 gave us some pretty good months – that is until levels dropped precipitously in the Fall leading to boats grounding out getting to/from their slips, plus a challenge at Haulout. But overall it was manageable.

So what about 2023?

The good news is that Environment Canada projections for Lake Ontario water levels are near normal, as you can see in the table below.

The dashed lines from January 2023 onwards are the predictions, with the high-water trend line in red and the low water trend line in blue. The positive to take away from these trend lines is that the high side is still well below the 2017 and 2109 record high levels. The more worrisome is the blue “low water” trend line. If this turns out to be the reality, then we could be in for even lower water levels as last Fall.

Taking the latest information on Lake Ontario, at the beginning of January, the level was 8cm below the average for that time but rose more rapidly than the average over the month - by 18 cm. So the trend is currently closer to the red line.

So, my advice is to pray/hope for somewhat higher than average precipitation in the upper great lakes for the next couple months (and maybe not so dry a summer) to prevent Lake Ontario levels from following the blue line in the latter summer/autumn. As much as we dislike seeing water lapping up around our dock-boards, it’s way better than having our boats sitting on the harbour bottom!

Exciting (to some of us) Factoids:

• Official records of Great Lakes water levels began in 1918

• The lowest recorded Lake Ontario water levels was in 1934-35, which was a meter lower than what we experienced last Fall. Think about that!